Sunshine Coast Property Market Insights: Key Takeaways from the Economic Breakfast
Spire Law recently hosted a Sunshine Coast Economic Breakfast, bringing together clients and industry professionals to discuss the economic and property trends shaping the region. The event featured presentations from Gareth Spence, Tim Kelly, Stuart Greensill, and Chris McKillop, who shared insights on the economic outlook, housing supply, and development pressures across the Sunshine Coast and broader South East Queensland. Several important themes emerged from the discussion, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges facing the region’s property market.
Population Growth Continuing to Drive Demand
Population growth remains one of the strongest drivers of housing demand across South East Queensland. The region is projected to experience significant growth over the coming decades, with forecasts suggesting more than two million additional residents across South East Queensland by 2046. The Sunshine Coast itself is expected to grow from around 360,000 residents today to more than 500,000 by 2046, reflecting continued migration to coastal regions driven by lifestyle factors, infrastructure investment and employment opportunities. As the population continues to grow, demand for housing across the Sunshine Coast is expected to remain strong.
Housing Supply Struggling to Keep Pace
A key theme discussed during the presentations was the growing imbalance between housing demand and housing supply. While population growth is increasing demand for housing, the delivery of new housing has struggled to keep pace. Planning approval timeframes, construction costs, labour shortages and infrastructure requirements are all contributing to a constrained supply pipeline. This imbalance is expected to remain a key challenge for the region in the coming years as demand continues to increase.
Rental Vacancy Rates Remain Extremely Tight
The Sunshine Coast rental market continues to experience significant pressure. Vacancy rates across many parts of the region are expected to remain below 1%, well below the 3% vacancy rate generally considered to represent a balanced rental market. Low vacancy rates indicate that demand significantly exceeds supply, creating ongoing pressure for renters and highlighting the importance of delivering additional housing across the region.
Housing Affordability Pressures
Housing affordability continues to be a major issue across the Sunshine Coast. Strong demand combined with limited housing supply has contributed to significant increases in property values over recent years. For example, the median house price in Maroochydore increased from approximately $729,000 in 2020 to around $1.3 million in 2025, demonstrating how rapidly the market has changed in a relatively short period of time. While this growth reflects strong demand and confidence in the region, it also presents challenges for households seeking to enter the property market.
Construction Costs and Development Feasibility
Construction costs remain another important factor shaping development activity. Although cost increases have begun to stabilise compared with the rapid escalation seen during the pandemic years, construction costs remain elevated relative to historical levels. Higher construction costs can affect the feasibility of development projects, particularly when combined with planning approval requirements, infrastructure contributions and financing costs. For developers, careful project planning and due diligence remain critical when bringing projects to market.
Changing Household Sizes and Housing Diversity
Another interesting insight discussed during the presentations was the changing way people live compared with the housing currently being delivered.
Across Queensland:
- 62% of households consist of one or two people
- However, around 72% of homes contain three or four bedrooms
This mismatch highlights the growing need for greater housing diversity, including smaller dwellings, townhouses and medium-density developments. As population growth continues and household sizes evolve, planning frameworks and development strategies may increasingly need to accommodate a broader range of housing types.
Strength of the Sunshine Coast Property Market
Despite affordability pressures and supply constraints, the Sunshine Coast property market continues to demonstrate strong demand. The region remains highly attractive to buyers relocating from other parts of Australia due to its lifestyle, coastal environment and growing infrastructure. Recent high-value property sales across areas such as Noosa, Sunrise Beach and Moffat Beach highlight the continued strength of demand for Sunshine Coast property. This ongoing interest reinforces the region’s position as one of the most dynamic property markets in South East Queensland.
Looking Ahead
The Sunshine Coast continues to experience strong population growth and development activity. At the same time, pressures around housing supply, affordability and development feasibility are becoming increasingly important considerations for developers and industry professionals. Navigating these challenges often involves a range of legal and planning considerations, from site acquisition and development approvals through to construction, leasing, sales and, where required, disputes. At Spire Law, our team works closely with developers, property owners and industry professionals across property, planning and environment, construction and dispute matters, providing coordinated advice throughout the lifecycle of a development project.
